Lithium Carbonate Market Set for Strong Expansion | Latest Innovations and Regional Insights 2033

Allied Market Research published a report, titled, "Lithium Carbonate Market by Grade (Battery Grade, Technical Grade, Industrial Grade), by Application (Electric Vehicles, Pharmaceutical, Cement Manufacturing, Glass and Ceramics, Others): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2024-2033". According to the report, the "lithium carbonate market" was valued at $26.7 billion in 2023, and is estimated to reach $102.8 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 14.5% from 2024 to 2033. 

Exploring Growth & Innovation Opportunities:

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has significantly increased the demand for lithium carbonate, a critical component in lithium-ion batteries. In 2023, EVs accounted for 80% of lithium-ion battery demand, a figure expected to rise as EV adoption accelerates worldwide. In China, the world's largest EV market, government policies have significantly boosted EV adoption. In July 2024, China doubled EV subsidies, leading to more than 5 million EVs sold by mid-December 2024. This surge in EV sales has driven a substantial increase in lithium carbonate production, with China's output rising 45% from 2023 to 670,000 metric tons in 2024. The surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption has significantly increased global demand for lithium carbonate, a crucial component in lithium-ion batteries. In 2023, EV battery demand reached over 750 GWh, marking a 40% increase from the previous year, with electric cars accounting for 95% of this growth. This escalating demand has prompted substantial investments in lithium production. For instance, Saudi Aramco is expanding into lithium production, aiming for commercial output by 2027 to support the manufacturing of 500,000 EV batteries and 110 GW of renewable energy by 2030. Rio Tinto's negotiations to acquire Arcadium Lithium highlight strategic efforts to strengthen positions in the lithium market, anticipating an eightfold increase in lithium demand by 2040. 

Governing Policies and Regulatory Impacts:

The governing policies and regulatory impacts on lithium carbonate, a critical component in battery manufacturing, particularly for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage, and other technologies, are shaped by a combination of environmental, economic, and geopolitical factors. Lithium production is highly concentrated in a few countries (e.g., Australia, Chile, Argentina, India), and there are concerns about supply chain disruptions. Governments may impose export restrictions or tariffs on lithium exports to retain local resources or influence global lithium prices. In August 2023, India amended the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957, to allow private companies to mine lithium and other critical minerals. This legislative change aims to bolster domestic production of minerals essential for EV batteries and electronics. Moreover, in July 2024, the Indian government removed customs duties on the import of lithium minerals. This move is designed to reduce input costs for lithium-ion battery manufacturing, thereby promoting the growth of the EV industry and enhancing competitiveness in the renewable energy sector. 

Expansion of Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP) Batteries:

The expansion of Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP) batteries is significantly driving the demand for lithium carbonate, a key raw material used in battery production. LFP batteries have gained traction due to their superior safety, long cycle life, and cost-effectiveness compared to other lithium-ion chemistries, such as nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries. In October 2024, GM announced the discontinuation of its Ultium battery brand to focus on integrating various cell types, emphasizing LFP technology. This strategic shift aims to reduce electric vehicle (EV) costs by up to $6,000, leveraging LFP's simpler and more affordable composition, which also sidesteps ethical concerns associated with cobalt used in other battery chemistries. Major automakers, including Tesla, BYD, and Volkswagen, are incorporating LFP battery technology in their EV models due to its lower cost and enhanced thermal stability. In December 2024, Stellantis partnered with Chinese battery manufacturer CATL to invest approximately $4.4686 billion (€4.1 billion) in a new LFP battery plant in Zaragoza, Spain. Scheduled to commence production by late 2026, this facility aims to bolster EV affordability by producing safer and more cost-effective LFP batteries, despite their lower energy density compared to alternatives containing lithium carbonate, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. 

Geopolitical Factors and Trade Policies:

Lithium production is highly concentrated in a few countries (e.g., Australia, Chile, Argentina), and there are concerns about supply chain disruptions. Governments may impose export restrictions or tariffs on lithium exports to retain local resources or influence global lithium prices. The U.S., for example, has taken steps to secure lithium supply through strategic partnerships and mining projects. January 2025, China proposed additional export restrictions on technologies used in processing critical minerals like lithium. These measures aim to maintain China's dominant position in the lithium processing market, which is crucial for electric vehicle batteries, and could pose challenges for Western companies relying on Chinese technology. Moreover, On May 31, 2022, Argentina's Federal Public Revenue Administration established an export reference price for lithium carbonate at a Free on Board (FOB) value of USD 53 per kilogram, applicable to exports destined for countries including Canada, the U.S., Japan, China, and South Korea. This measure remained in effect until July 22, 2024.